Downward pricing pressure on NAND flash is coming from various angles as we enter the final furlongs of 2020. According to a new report published by the Storage Newsletter, citing TrendForce data, there is an oversupply of NAND flash, which naturally exerts a downward pressure on pricing. Two main factors are behind the downward pressure; Huawei not being able to buy foreign NAND due to US sanctions, and other clients have already stocked up on NAND so have high inventory levels.
Of course most HEXUS readers will be interested in NAND pricing trends in the hope that price declines filter through to SSD storage. And when we move onto the topic of SSDs, we have some good news: there is further downward pricing pressure due to weakening demand from server manufactures, claim the research reports.
At the moment I still have one mechanical hard drive in my PC systems, a 1TB data drive in my laptop (which boots from a smaller M.2 SSD). I have been seeing appealing SSD pricing recently for 2.5-inch SATA 1TB drives here in the UK, with some big name brands coming in at under £70 - a figure pleasingly nearer to £50 than £100. However, taking the TrendForce data on face value it would be wise to wait through Q4 2020, and even into Q1 2021 for some significant reductions in NAND/SSD pricing.
The market data with regard to NAND Flash suggests that pricing will trend down by 10 per cent in Q4, with a 10-15 per cent price drop in SSDs in the same timescale. In Q1 2021, NAND flash is expected to fall further, by as much as 10 to 15 per cent, so we might expect a similar follow-through for SSDs. Thus, after some rough calculations, I see that that £70 1TB drive could come tantalisingly close to £50, perhaps even to reaching the milestone £49.99 price point. Then I might start pondering the option of a 2TB SSD as my last HDD replacement…
TrendForce also shares some DRAM pricing trend data. In brief, it reckons we will see declines in memory pricing too but the dips will be shallower, less significant.