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IDC predicts Windows Phone will overtake Apple

by Janani Krishnaswamy on 30 March 2011, 11:42

Tags: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), IDC

Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qa5dz

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Encouragement for NokiaSoft

With more enterprise users turning to smartphones, IDC predicts that the smartphone market will grow by 50 percent this year - more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

While Android will lead with 45.4 percent market share, IDC foresees Windows Phone will take the number 2 place by 2015 with 20.9 percent. However, the market for BlackBerry and Apple's iOS will remain unaffected.  IDC also predicted that Nokia's Symbian phones might still occupy a miniscule 0.2 percent of the market.

The IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker noted that smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 as against the 303.4 million units shipped last year.

While the market growth in 2010 was outstanding, Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker noted that: "Last year's high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."

Echoing an Ovum forecast, Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst at IDC, said Android is poised to dominate the market. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."

It is clear that Nokia's recent decision to shift to Windows Phone is having significant implications in the market.  While Microsoft has been making steady losses up until the launch of Windows 7 last year, Llamas noted that "the new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

Here's IDC's forecast table.

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR (listed alphabetically) 

Operating System

2011 Market Share

2015 Market Share

2011-2015 CAGR

Android

39.5%

45.4%

23.8%

BlackBerry

14.9%

13.7%

17.1%

iOS

15.7%

15.3%

18.8%

Symbian

20.9%

0.2%

-65.0%

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile

5.5%

20.9%

67.1%

Others

3.5%

4.6%

28.0%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

19.6%

 



HEXUS Forums :: 12 Comments

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Nother triumph of futuremaths and spurious accuracy.

Windows will have 61.7% of the 2011-2015 market? Not 67.2% or 66.998% then? I might have paid half an earsful of attention if they had said “around 60%”. but 61.7%. Bravo.

Tosh and widdle. I can make up numbers too.

I have no idea if I will have a job in 3 months time. How on earth can these people know with such mind-shattering accuracy what phone I will buy by then. Have they factored in earthquakes, radiation leaks, epidemics of influenza, changes and upheavels in political systems and the collapse of the euro against a basket of african currencies? Thought not.

How is that people in padded chairs get paid to trot out this unsupportable load of old todd on a weekly basis?

I think Hexus should put a note in the diary to check these numbers in 3 years time, and then interview the wierdwit who came up with them.
bobharvey
How is that people in padded chairs get paid to trot out this unsupportable load of old todd on a weekly basis?
You're talking as if economics is a real science, rather than a tool to manipulate capitalists into throwing all their money up the great big ponzi banking ladder.
bobharvey
I think Hexus should put a note in the diary to check these numbers in 3 years time, and then interview the wierdwit who came up with them.

Done :)
aidanjt
You're talking as if economics is a real science, rather than a tool to manipulate capitalists into throwing all their money up the great big ponzi banking ladder.
You're talking as if this is economics.
TheAnimus
You're talking as if this is economics.

Eh, economists and speculators spew out crap like this *all* the time.