Hang in there
The global economy still has a long way to go before we can conclusively say it's back on its feet, but as a microcosm the PC industry seems to be much further along the road to recovery.
The latest quarterly PC tracker from market researcher IDC forecasts not only double-digital growth for the PC industry this year, but for the subsequent four years too.
As ever, mobile PCs will be where pretty much all the growth comes from, with the commercial segment expected to pick up after a poor 2009. Emerging markets will see the greater growth, but even mature markets are expected to reach double figures by next year. Revenues won't recover so quickly, but at least ASP declines are expected to slow.
"With lean margins and further market consolidation remaining a harsh reality for the foreseeable future, vendors are increasingly looking to a mix of volume and specialized products to grow revenue, including new combinations of portability, performance, and the intriguing possibilities of touch computing," said Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC.
"Overcoming challenges, such as synchronizing data across multiple devices, will be an important step in enabling adoption of more devices and expanding market growth."
"IDC is keenly focused on the forthcoming tablet device market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC VP. "However, we don't expect these products - which do not meet the current IDC definition of a PC - will stunt the strong growth in PCs we're expecting to see this year."
PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2009-2014 (Shipments in millions)
|
Region |
Form Factor |
2009 |
2010* |
2011* |
2012* |
2013* |
2014* |
|
USA |
Desktop PC |
27.5 |
25.9 |
25.4 |
25.1 |
24.8 |
24.7 |
|
USA |
Portable PC |
42.5 |
50.0 |
60.9 |
71.7 |
82.0 |
92.4 |
|
USA |
Total PC |
70.0 |
75.9 |
86.3 |
96.8 |
106.9 |
117.1 |
|
International |
Desktop PC |
99.6 |
102.3 |
104.8 |
106.7 |
107.8 |
108.5 |
|
International |
Portable PC |
126.4 |
154.9 |
188.5 |
224.5 |
262.8 |
305.7 |
|
International |
Total PC |
226.0 |
257.3 |
293.3 |
331.2 |
370.5 |
414.2 |
|
Worldwide |
Desktop PC |
127.1 |
128.3 |
130.3 |
131.8 |
132.6 |
133.2 |
|
Worldwide |
Portable PC |
168.8 |
204.9 |
249.4 |
296.2 |
344.8 |
398.1 |
|
Worldwide |
Total PC |
296.0 |
333.2 |
379.6 |
428.0 |
477.4 |
531.3 |
PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2009-2014
|
Region |
Form Factor |
2009 |
2010* |
2011* |
2012* |
2013* |
2014* |
|
USA |
Desktop PC |
-12.3% |
-5.8% |
-1.9.% |
-1.3% |
-1.2% |
-0.5% |
|
USA |
Portable PC |
24.1% |
17.7% |
21.8% |
17.7% |
14.5% |
12.6% |
|
USA |
Total PC |
6.7% |
8.5% |
13.7% |
12.1% |
10.4% |
9.5% |
|
International |
Desktop PC |
-12.3% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
1.8% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
International |
Portable PC |
16.5% |
22.6% |
21.6% |
19.2% |
17.0% |
16.4% |
|
International |
Total PC |
1.8% |
13.8% |
14.0% |
12.9% |
11.9% |
11.8% |
|
Worldwide |
Desktop PC |
-12.3% |
0.9% |
1.6% |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
|
Worldwide |
Portable PC |
18.4% |
21.4% |
21.7% |
18.8% |
16.4% |
15.5% |
|
Worldwide |
Total PC |
2.9% |
12.6% |
13.9% |
12.7% |
11.5% |
11.3% |
* Forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, March 2010
