Geographical shift
There has also been a geographical shift. In 2000 the US accounted for 37 percent of the total market and emerging markets less than 30. By 2008 emerging markets formed nearly half of the global total and the US was down to less than a quarter. That's not great news right now as emerging markets are expected to be harder hit than mature ones by the recession.
The dramatic declines in component shipments in Q4 should not be extrapolated to this year, says the report, as a lot of the decline is attributable to clearing of existing inventory. In other words, don't expect the 11 percent Q4 drop to repeat itself in subsequent quarters.
"To be sure, the PC market is in for a bumpy ride," said Loren Loverde, IDC director. "Nevertheless, there are a number of reasons why the PC market will not fare dramatically worse in the current environment than it did in the 2001 recession - even if the current economic environment is notably worse. Pricing will become even more aggressive, and there will be further consolidation, but the PC industry will not go the way of the financial or auto industries in this cycle."
"Slackening demand in the consumer market is stifling the engine of growth for U.S. PC shipments," said Richard Shim, research manager at IDC. "In conjunction with an increasingly negative scenario in the commercial market, the U.S. PC industry is seeing a substantial drop in volume. When the PC market rebounds, we expect the commercial replacements to take a larger role in the recovery."
