Short term arrival
Long Term Evolution (LTE), the next standard in mobile network technology, has been predicted by ABI Research to take-off commercially in 2011, with Verizon and Japan's DoCoMo planning wide-scale roll-outs by the end of this year.
According to Bhavya Khanna, an analyst at ABI, 132 networks have trialled LTE or plan to launch it commercially, an increase of 32 networks since the close of 2009. "Verizon has also hinted at the availability of LTE-based handsets by May 2011," said Khanna.
However, the analyst warns LTE's rival - Intel-supported WiMAX - is unlikely to bow out of the competition to become the dominant 4G network, yet. Despite setbacks including Russia's Yota switching to LTE, 188 WiMAX networks are also in trial or being rolled out for commercial operation across the globe, Khanna said.
"With India's wireless broadband spectrum auction recently concluded, expect that number to grow in 2011. Clearwire, a WiMAX service provider in the United States, continues to build out its network and add subscribers, buoyed by the launch of a popular WiMAX-capable handset, the HTC EVO 4G," he added.
Khanna predicted WiMAX will face its biggest threat from TD-LTE, an alternative technology championed by China and Qualcomm that can operate on the same bandwidth as existing WiMAX networks. If the technology proves successful, he believes some WiMAX operators could migrate to the LTE standard, in a bitter blow to the challenging network.
While the battle continues, Khanna warned operators cannot afford to ignore their legacy 3G networks. Upgrades such as HSPA+ for WCDMA networks are presently proving popular, helping current networks cope with its users' increasing demand for faster speeds and bandwidth efficiency, especially needed to ensure popular multimedia apps can be supported.
According to Khanna, over 41 network operators had trials or were planning commercial launches of HSPA+ networks in March this year, which notably include T-Mobile in the US and Vodafone in Turkey.
The LTE versus WiMAX war has been raging for over a year, heating up in August of last year when the EU significantly backed LTE to the tune of €18m effectively endorsing it as Europe's network of choice. LTE was also given another boost in December as operator O2/Telefonica teamed up with Huawei to conduct the ‘first' operational trial in the UK.
