Bottoming out
Even by contemporary standards, the semiconductor equipment industry has experienced a massive decline in spending over the past couple of years.
A new Gartner survey reveals capital spending dropped by over 30 percent between 2007 and 2008 and predicts a nearly 45 percent further decline this year.
The good news, however, is that Gartner reckons things have bottomed out and are going to pick up dramatically next year, when it predicts an increase in spend of nearly 21 percent, followed by a further jump of over 34 percent in 2011.
"The impact of the economic crisis has hit the semiconductor equipment industry hard, but signs of life are returning," said Klaus Rinnen, managing VP at Gartner. "Undoubtedly it will be a long, slow road to complete recovery, but we are seeing the first indications of increased foundry activity to replenish inventories depleted by the cutbacks of the past few quarters."
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending Forecast, 2008-2013 (Millions of Dollars)
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
|
|
Semiconductor Capital Spending |
44,012.3 |
24,295.9 |
29,383.7 |
39,511.8 |
47,264.1 |
42,121.8 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-30.5 |
-44.8 |
20.9 |
34.5 |
19.6 |
-10.9 |
|
|
Capital Equipment |
30,659.3 |
16,615.9 |
21,438.0 |
29,485 |
34,704.3 |
29,757.4 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-31.7 |
-45.8 |
29 |
37.5 |
17.7 |
-14.3 |
|
|
Wafer Fab Equipment |
24,213.9 |
12,818.7 |
16,206.9 |
22,400.9 |
26,982.7 |
23,582.1 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-32.8 |
-47.1 |
26.4 |
38.2 |
20.5 |
-12.6 |
|
|
Packaging and Assembly Equipment |
3,999.8 |
2,135.1 |
3,033.8 |
4,049.6 |
4,483.8 |
3,565.0 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-24.5 |
-46.6 |
42.1 |
33.5 |
10.7 |
-20.5 |
|
|
Automated Test Equipment |
2,445.5 |
1,662.0 |
2,197.3 |
3,034.5 |
3,237.8 |
2,610.2 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-31.2 |
-32.0 |
32.2 |
38.1 |
6.7 |
-19.4 |
|
|
Other Spending |
13,353.0 |
7,680.0 |
7,945.7 |
10,026.9 |
12,559.8 |
12,364.4 |
|
|
Growth (%) |
-27.6 |
-42.5 |
3.5 |
26.2 |
25.3 |
-1.6 |
Source: Gartner (June 2009)
