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HEXUS.sharewatch: NVIDIA falls on 28nm GPU delay reports

by Scott Bicheno on 11 July 2011, 09:58

Tags: AMD (NYSE:AMD), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM)

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Speculation around the speed with which a new generation of graphics processing units (GPUs), based on the 28nm manufacturing process, will hit the market appears to be weighing on the shares of NVIDIA, and to a lesser extent graphics rival AMD.

The current rumours are summed up well by Slashgear, and concern the 28nm manufacturing process at giant semiconductor foundry TSMC. Chip-watchers Semi Accurate and Fudzilla have some healthy competition over who can offer the inside track on NVIDIA's Kepler GPU generation - the first to use the 28nm process.

NVIDIA's previously published GPU roadmap had Kepler launching sometime this year, but DigiTimes has joined the above publications in quoting anonymous sources as confirmation that it will now arrive in Q1 2012. Furthermore, it adds, Maxwell will arrive later than predicted too. This is blamed on problems with TSMC's 28nm process, and AMD's equivalent is predicted for the same timeframe.

It should be noted that Charlie and Fudo reckon AMD's 28nm GPU will arrive this year, and that a recent leak implied Qualcomm's 28nm SoCs may make an appearance this year, so the extent to which there are delays to TSMC's 28nm process on the whole is debatable.

Talking of Qualcomm, it has another little gain last week, but if you look at the past month you can see it has been on a good run. In fact, if Qualcomm's share price tops $60, that will be the first time it has done so since the height of the dotcom bubble 11 years ago.

 

Company Listing Share price 20/6/11 Share price 27/6/11 Share price 4/7/11 Share price 11/7/11 7-day change Market cap (bn)
AMD AMD 7.00 6.90 7.11 6.95 -2.3% 4.78
Apple AAPL 320.26 326.35 343.26 359.71 4.8% 331.39
ARM ARMH 26.99 28.07 28.60 29.78 4.1% 13.37
Avnet AVT 29.99 30.16 32.55 32.21 -1.0% 4.92
Cisco CSCO 14.97 14.93 15.86 15.74 -0.8% 86.57
Dell DELL 16.01 15.93 16.98 17.14 0.9% 32.32
Google GOOG 485.02 474.88 521.03 531.99 2.1% 171.43
HP HPQ 35.00 34.90 37.05 36.43 -1.7% 75.56
IBM IBM 164.44 165.07 174.54 176.49 1.1% 215.24
Intel INTC 21.19 21.20 22.53 23.09 2.5% 122.42
Microsoft MSFT 24.26 24.30 26.02 26.92 3.5% 227.01
Nokia NOK 6.02 5.88 6.42 6.22 -3.1% 23.63
Nvidia NVDA 15.81 15.74 16.15 15.43 -4.5% 9.26
Oracle ORCL 31.18 31.14 33.05 33.94 2.7% 171.92
Qualcomm QCOM 52.69 54.19 57.88 59.36 2.6% 99.10
Sony SNE 24.92 25.63 26.57 27.10 2.0% 27.20
Vodafone VOD 25.90 26.20 26.90 26.75 -0.6% 137.29
Dow .DJI 12004.36 11934.58 12582.77 12657.20 0.6% N/A
FTSE 100 .FTSE 5680.17 5697.72 5989.76 5990.58 0.0% N/A
NASDAQ .IXIC 2616.48 2652.89 2816.03 2859.81 1.6% N/A


HEXUS Forums :: 11 Comments

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“Concerns that AMD may beat NVIDIA to the 28nm punch weigh on shares.”

I doubt it's that - AMD are small fry and the areas they compete in over GPU probably aren't that significant. IMHO it's more likely to be on going concern over NVIDIA high volume products, given the squeeze coming in especially from Intel with their onboard graphics. NVIDIA need to maximise their revenue from other areas given that's effectively dead now, so it's what's happening for tablets/smartphones and next gen consoles that are the areas of interest. AMD already got the Wii U contract, I've a feeling Microsoft were quite happy with AMD in the X360, so keeping with them would be natural, that leaves Sony as the major customer to win.
kalniel
“Concerns that AMD may beat NVIDIA to the 28nm punch weigh on shares.”

I doubt it's that - AMD are small fry and the areas they compete in over GPU probably aren't that significant. IMHO it's more likely to be on going concern over NVIDIA high volume products, given the squeeze coming in especially from Intel with their onboard graphics. NVIDIA need to maximise their revenue from other areas given that's effectively dead now, so it's what's happening for tablets/smartphones and next gen consoles that are the areas of interest. AMD already got the Wii U contract, I've a feeling Microsoft were quite happy with AMD in the X360, so keeping with them would be natural, that leaves Sony as the major customer to win.

All those could well be contributing factors, but I'm not sure I agree that AMD qualifies as ‘small fry’.
Scott B;2100116
All those could well be contributing factors, but I'm not sure I agree that AMD qualifies as ‘small fry’.

Well, true, it's a question of relativity, but as a whole company AMD are smaller than NVIDIA, despite the fact NVIDIA is almost entirely GPU, while AMD are CPU+GPU+Chipset. So in the GPU arena AMD are substantially smaller.

That said, they achieved greater PC market share in Q1 than NVIDIA for GPUs, despite being much smaller.
its also execution. AMD still rolled out 6series despite 32nm getting canceled. nv had to suck it hard and squeeze fermi out on a too high a process. Nv already whining about 28nm and its TSMC's fault. I dont hear AMD or others baying for blood. points to NV screwing up their engineering again.

time to get popcorn again and listen to the “ITS NOT OUR FAULT” brigade again.
kalniel
Well, true, it's a question of relativity, but as a whole company AMD are smaller than NVIDIA, despite the fact NVIDIA is almost entirely GPU, while AMD are CPU+GPU+Chipset. So in the GPU arena AMD are substantially smaller.

That said, they achieved greater PC market share in Q1 than NVIDIA for GPUs, despite being much smaller.

AMD is a much bigger company than Nvidia. Twice as large almost by number of employees and revenue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amd