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Prospect of hung parliament weakens pound

by Scott Bicheno on 7 May 2010, 10:46

Tags: UK Government, General Business

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So what now?

We generally try to be chirpy and optimistic here at HEXUS.channel, but the political chaos we woke up to the day after the general election doesn't look like great news to us.

Apart from the fact that no political business will get done (not necessarily a bad thing - Ed) until we work out who's in charge, the uncertainty has given already nervous markets the heebie-jeebies.

One manifestation of this is our currency - the pound. The strength of our currency against others is essentially an indication of the perceived relative heath and prospects of our economy. Political instability is rarely good news for business and markets have responded by selling off the quid.

Since 5 May - the day before the election, the pound has fallen by five cents - around three percent - against the dollar. A pound will now buy you $1.46, and the reason you should care is that most tech gear is sold in dollars. That means something that cost a hundred dollars two days ago now costs $103.

This affects the whole channel. End-user demand is dampened by the increased prices, which affects retailers and distributors. Even the US vendors who sell in dollars are affected because their products, in effect, cost more.

And that was only part of the market-related fun in the past 24 hours. You probably will have seen footage of Greeks rioting at the severe austerity measures being demanded of them in return for financial assistance. This has affected global stock markets as traders get defensive in anticipation of a Greek debt default.

While this drove the Dow and NASDAQ down yesterday, there was also an alarming anomaly that caused the Dow to fall, at one stage, by over 1,000 points. CNBC is reporting that the cause may have been, of all things, a typo. It reckons a trader typed ‘billion' instead of ‘million' when submitting a trade. While much of that fall was recovered, the Dow and NASDAQ still closed down over three percent.

If a typo was the reason for the biggest intra-day fall in the Dow's history, to us it's amazing this sort of thing doesn't happen on a regular basis. Not that we ever make typos, of course.

 



HEXUS Forums :: 17 Comments

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Are you kidding, at the level of economic policy incompetence to date, a hung parliament is the best possible result. Where do these idiotic speculators get their information from?

The only thing which has shocked me is just how many votes Labour still got.
Not convinced it's political uncertainly that's caused the run. More like it's the panic on the markets over the weakness of the eurozone. There's trouble all over the financial world right now.
I'm inclined to agree with that assertion. People are slowly waking up to the fact that the economic mess never really levelled out to begin with.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GBPUSD

Its based on fear over our debts, the idea a hung parliament might not be able to make the required cuts due to all the pork barrelling they have to do, as they have more vested interests to please.

We could well be in trouble, but at least we've got our gold to fall back on… oh wait a second.
Saracen
Not convinced it's political uncertainly that's caused the run. More like it's the panic on the markets over the weakness of the eurozone. There's trouble all over the financial world right now.
I'd say some of this could be due to the fat finger indicent yesterday. But a lot of it is just fear of the UK. Brings a new meaning to Brownian Motion ;)