Notebook revenue
DisplaySearch has also published a report on the notebook market, again focusing on revenue as opposed to volume of units sold.
While there has been an increase in the total number of notebooks sold, a 20 percent decline in average selling prices means notebook revenue is forecast to decline by 12 percent to $109 billion.
A big factor in both the volume growth and the revenue decline is mini-notebooks, or netbooks. Intel has completed one of the great Pyrrhic victories of all time by creating and owning the market for netbook processors, while at the same time lowering expectations of both price and performance. The good news is that netbook growth is forecast to plateau.
"Mini-notes continue to be a significant piece of the notebook PC pie, in terms of both units and revenue. However, our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20% through 2011 before starting to erode," said John F. Jacobs, director of notebook research at DisplaySearch.
"While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap.
"For 2010, we expect further erosion of ASPs across almost every portable computer segment. However, unit growth should be sufficient to offset ASP decline, leading to flat Y/Y revenue for the portable PC market."
Notebook PC and Mini-Note Revenue (Billions of US$)
Category |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2009 Y/Y |
2010 Y/Y |
Mini-Note |
$6.65 |
$11.40 |
$11.40 |
72% |
-0.1% |
Ultraportable PC |
$8.93 |
$6.92 |
$6.51 |
-23% |
-6% |
Portable PC |
$91.91 |
$80.29 |
$77.05 |
-13% |
-4% |
Desktop |
$9.60 |
$10.78 |
$13.02 |
-12% |
21% |
All Portable PC |
$117.09 |
$109.40 |
$108.0 |
-12% |
-1% |
Notebook PC |
$110.4 |
$98.0 |
$96.6 |
-11% |
-1% |
Source: DisplaySearch's new Q4'09 Advanced Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report