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Retail slump has ‘bottomed out’

by Scott Bicheno on 23 July 2009, 11:43

Tags: Retail Think Tank

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Could just be the weather

Meanwhile, the Beeb has a couple of stories today to provide a little more grounds for optimism.

The sentiments of the RTT are reinforced by the revelation from the Office for National Statistics that June retail sales in the UK jumped by 1.2 percent from the month before - a far greater jump than was expected. Furthermore, June sales were up 2.9 percent on the same period a year ago, as the nice weather got everyone buying summery stuff.

The inevitable ‘dont break out the champagne yet' comment was also included, however, as Colin Ellis at Daiwa Securities said: "Nobody should take too much comfort from today's figures - household retrenchment has a way to run yet, especially with unemployment rising."

Lastly, the ultimate barometer of the UK economy - the property market - reached a 15 month high on mortgage approvals, according to the British Banker's Association.

This is significant, not only as a measure of growing consumer confidence and as an indication that the housing market may have bottomed out too, but as a sign that the credit crunch may be resolving itself and that banks are feeling more confident about lending.

The obligatory sceptic pointed out to the Beeb that banks are still not lending at levels sufficient to drive a sustained recovery in the property market.

Retail Think Tank says decline in retail health has now ‘bottomed out' ... at least for the time being

 



HEXUS Forums :: 2 Comments

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Could be cus there was so many sales on at the time, next month it's back to the slump.
Bottomed out? I hope so, but I doubt it. There's still to many negative indicators, not least of which is still-rising unemployment, and as that goes up, it affects confidence, spending and government finances.

We'll see, but I'm not holding my breath for the worst of this to be over just yet.