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Gartner Says Outlook for the Semiconductor Equipment Industry Bottomed Out in Second Quarter of 2009

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Press release

The outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry is beginning to improve, as it appears capital equipment spending has bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009, according to Gartner Inc. Analysts predict a gradual improvement on a quarter-by-quarter basis throughout the rest of the year and into 2010.

The current uptick in semiconductor sales will not be sufficient to overcome the effects of industrywide overcapacity and low utilization rates in the short term. Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is on pace to total $24.3 billion in 2009, a 44.8 percent decline from 2008 spending of $44 billion (see Table 1). In 2010, worldwide capital equipment spending is forecast to reach $29.4 billion, a 20.9 percent increase from 2009.

"The impact of the economic crisis has hit the semiconductor equipment industry hard, but signs of life are returning," said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner. "Undoubtedly it will be a long, slow road to complete recovery, but we are seeing the first indications of increased foundry activity to replenish inventories depleted by the cutbacks of the past few quarters."

Table 1
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending Forecast, 2008-2013 (Millions of Dollars)

 

2008

  2009

  2010

  2011

  2012

  2013

 

Semiconductor Capital Spending

44,012.3

  24,295.9

  29,383.7

  39,511.8

  47,264.1

  42,121.8

 

Growth (%)

-30.5

  -44.8

  20.9

  34.5

  19.6

  -10.9

 

Capital Equipment

30,659.3

  16,615.9

  21,438.0

  29,485

  34,704.3

  29,757.4

 

Growth (%)

-31.7

  -45.8

  29

  37.5

  17.7

  -14.3

 

     Wafer Fab Equipment

24,213.9

  12,818.7

  16,206.9

  22,400.9

  26,982.7

  23,582.1

 

     Growth (%)

-32.8

  -47.1

  26.4

  38.2

  20.5

  -12.6

 

     Packaging and Assembly Equipment

3,999.8

  2,135.1

  3,033.8

  4,049.6

  4,483.8

  3,565.0

 

     Growth (%)

-24.5

  -46.6

  42.1

  33.5

  10.7

  -20.5

 

     Automated Test Equipment

2,445.5

  1,662.0

  2,197.3

  3,034.5

  3,237.8

  2,610.2

 

     Growth (%)

-31.2

  -32.0

  32.2

  38.1

  6.7

  -19.4

 

Other Spending

13,353.0

  7,680.0

  7,945.7

  10,026.9

  12,559.8

  12,364.4

 

Growth (%)

-27.6

  -42.5

  3.5

  26.2

  25.3

  -1.6

               

Source: Gartner (June 2009)