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Windows will be third placed OS ecosystem by 2017 says Gartner

by Mark Tyson on 1 October 2015, 13:01

Tags: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Windows 10

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Based upon recent figures, that market research specialist Gartner has shared with ComputerWorld, it looks like the Windows ecosystem will be third placed by 2017, in terms of new devices shipped.

How things stand in 2015

The current situation is that 2.4 billion devices will ship in 2015. Splitting the market between vendors; Android is on the vast majority of shipping devices, Windows will be on about 308 million devices shipped this year, just under 13 per cent of the total. Meanwhile Apple's iOS and OS X devices take third place at 298 million devices shipped. (Note that 80 per cent of all devices shipped are smartphones.) Worryingly for Microsoft, as 2015 has progressed, Gartner has revised down the figure for expected Windows device shipments; from 331 million back in March, to 323 million in July (and 308 million most recently).

In 2017 Windows falls into third place

According to Gartner's forecasts there will be nearly 2.5 billion devices shipped in total during 2017. Android will power 1.6 billion of them. In second place Apple devices will account for 326.6 million, edging out Windows devices, which will total 325.9 million shipped during that year.

You will notice that the total amount of devices shipping in the respective years is almost the same, Gartner research director, Ranjit Atwal, explains the situation: "Replacement activity across all types of devices has decreased," said Atwal. "Users are extending the lifetime of their devices, or deciding not to replace their devices at all."

ComputerWorld thinks that Microsoft has "little chance" to turn around its fortunes, with smartphones in particular. However it has recently been seen that both Apple and Google are launching similar products to the Microsoft Surface 2-in-1, and PC makers are predicting good things for that segment. It isn't until 2017 that Gartner sees meaningful growth in PCs, Windows, and premium ultra-mobile devices.

The fickle fashionable smartphone market can move one way or another pretty quickly, as can be seen by past giants such as Blackberry, HTC and Nokia all dramatically falling from grace. Thus I think these Gartner predictions are likely to be derailed by some popular movement or another, before 2017 arrives.



HEXUS Forums :: 28 Comments

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It's not even the marketsize, it's the engagement.

What is amazing is the ‘low friction’ people have for mobile apps, compared with desktop ones. Something that people wouldn't bother with on a desktop, they would for a mobile device.
Hmm, I'd not be so quick to write off MS. From what I've seen the Surface line has a LOT of respect and surely there's a halo effect from that. Sure the Lumia's haven't exactly set the world on fire, but I'm 100% convinced that MS has been caught in that app store chicken-and-egg setup where people ignore Lumia's because of lack of apps, but developers ignore it because of the lack of demand.

Am I right in thinking that Gartner's looking purely at consumer devices? I don't see any mention of server devices (which surely are still part of the “ecosystem”) where Microsoft would do very well, and conversely Google and Apple wouldn't.
crossy
Hmm, I'd not be so quick to write off MS. From what I've seen the Surface line has a LOT of respect and surely there's a halo effect from that. Sure the Lumia's haven't exactly set the world on fire, but I'm 100% convinced that MS has been caught in that app store chicken-and-egg setup where people ignore Lumia's because of lack of apps, but developers ignore it because of the lack of demand.

Am I right in thinking that Gartner's looking purely at consumer devices? I don't see any mention of server devices (which surely are still part of the “ecosystem”) where Microsoft would do very well, and conversely Google and Apple wouldn't.

Or is it that the sheer number of new handsets completely dwarf the number of new servers to the point where they make hardly any difference to the numbers?

As we move forward, a certain amount of the server market will start to move towards ARM……meaning less Windows in that segment…..unless we see WinRT Server to try and combat it.
What shaithis said, i think smartphones out number conventional computers (servers, desktops, notebooks, 2 in 1's) by something like 3 to 1.
This whole article is a bit lop sided really, most people have a phone where as the need for a computer has dropped slightly and we are returning to the days of a single PC in a household.