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Windows will play second fiddle to Android in 2016

by Mark Tyson on 2 April 2012, 11:09

Tags: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

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Research analysts IDC extrapolate that, by 2016, sales of smart connected devices will double from the current figure reaching 1.84 billion units during that year. Looking deeper into the predicted figures the Wintel PC platform will slip from the 36 per cent of smart connected devices, the actual 2011 figure, to 25 per cent in 2016.

"We are in the multi-device age," commented Bob O'Donnell, vice president of Clients and Displays at IDC, "and we believe the number of people who use multiple devices will only continue to increase. The trick, moving forward, will be to integrate all these devices into a unified whole through use of personal cloud-type applications and services. That's the real challenge of what we have often called the 'PC Plus' era."

sales chart projection

The growth of Android-based smartphones is linked to several factors; most importantly the price of the devices, also the growth of smartphone sales in China with its 3G network subsidies. It is suggested in many instances the smartphone will be the user's primary Internet device.

This year the number of mobile phones in the world is predicted to exceed the number of people. There is an interesting chart, you can sort by clicking the headings, of mobile phone ownership around the world, thanks to Wikipedia. For the people of China to catch up with the mobile phone ownership rate of people in the UAE would require the sales of 1,654,190,000 new mobiles today!

androids playing yesterday
Androids celebrating the news yesterday

Where are Apple devices in this prediction? IDC predicts Apple iOS devices growing from their current 14.6 per cent share to 17.3 per cent in 2016.

In summary, the predicted devices shipped figures for 2016 are these; Android 31.1 per cent, Windows x86 25.1 per cent, Apple iOS 17.3 per cent and other smart connected devices 26.5 per cent. Personally I would guesstimate a low teens percentage of the other devices could be Windows on ARM devices. WoA seems to have been passed over in the IDC analysis.



HEXUS Forums :: 16 Comments

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In summary, the predicted devices shipped figures for 2016 are these; Android 31.1 per cent, Windows x86 25.1 per cent, Apple iOS 17.3 per cent and other smart connected devices 26.5 per cent. Personally I would guesstimate a low teens percentage of the other devices could be Windows on ARM devices. WoA seems to have been passed over in the IDC analysis.
Hmm, I'd love to have a crystal ball and see how many of that “Win/x86” percentage is down to WinPhone devices running on an Intel platform (although I'm not 100% convinced that this is really “x86”). Other than those, Win/x86 is desktops - so are we really going moving from desktops to these fancy mobile devices?

I'm also willing to bet - like the Hexus reporter - that a lot of the “other” category are going to be Win8 tablets. As far as I'm concerned I really can't see Android tablets damaging iPad's lead by anything more than a point or two (although I'd love to be wrong). On the other hand I'm pretty sure that a Win8 tablet is going to be a far easier “sell” against iPad, and it's also got Android's advantage (that more than one company will be doing hardware), so it's got a real chance of upsetting Apple's current dominance in that market.

Interesting times ahead
Most pointless story. There is no way of forecasting this data. It is nothing more than some bunch of people justifying their jobs by producing absolute rubbish figures.

4 years ago no one would have predicted the massive rise of Android, the demise of RIM or the near end of Nokia.

Complete CRAP…..
It was sunny yesterday… it was sunny today - it will be sunny forever.

Using their forecasting logic…
Even if the number of Android installs overtakes Windows……I foresee it being a very long tome before Android is a more profitable platform.

Still….we all know about statistics!
shaithis
Even if the number of Android installs overtakes Windows……I foresee it being a very long tome before Android is a more profitable platform.

Still….we all know about statistics!

Do you think Microsoft can get away with charging £30 (I think thats roughly what Dell et all pay as OEM) for Windows on ARM/Windows phone 8? I expect microsoft will have to almost give it away to get traction now. After all if you where a manufacture would you put on Android and pay a few dollars licensing fees on patients or pay Microsoft £30 for a platform with less traction on ARM? I think Microsoft are going to need deep pockets to get market share this time.