Apple will shoot themselves in the foot if they release a successor early. What with increasing size against their previous plans and bringing out an iPad mini they appear to be losing their core customers. I know of a fair amount of people who are fed up of their iPhones and the majority jumped ship to Galaxy S 3's!

Thats a pretty steep drop, also quite surprising. I know a lot of people with 4 and 4s who dont see the point in upgrading but more and more people have seem to started buying the 5. Reality is that it doesnt really offer users anything new i guess whereas android, with its greater choice of handset, is starting to look more appealing. Windows 8 is probably stealing a bit of the market share aswell.

If Apple adopt the more frequent renewal cycle for hardware then it is only natural that they will sell fewer of each iteration of their device. But the cut in orders is a clear sign of reduced sales as it is based on a projection of sales. If the sales were as hoped, they would not stop production. It's akin to PC tech companies not releasing new generations while inventories of old tech are depleted (because they still sell).
That they feel the need to release again so soon means they are ‘feeling’ they are at risk of losing the momentum in new device prestige.

Still goes against their principles though doesn't it. It's things like this that are putting people off Apple. The change in dock connector was a big deal breaker for a lot of people I know, and as everybody else has settled near enough on micro-usb that has become appealing

If they perhaps stopped the whole “walled garden” approach with peripherals and apps being forced to go through expensive approval processes (less so the apps but still…) and competed on a level playing field I think they might find they have more business.

When the rest of the world is going open source and they are running screaming in the other direction though I think they can expect to push themselves further into a rather unwelcome niche.

At least with the laptops they offer VERY good build quality and you can slap windows on there if/when the gravy train stops.

3dcandy
Still goes against their principles though doesn't it. It's things like this that are putting people off Apple. The change in dock connector was a big deal breaker for a lot of people I know, and as everybody else has settled near enough on micro-usb that has become appealing

They had to shrink it at some point though really, stupid that they didnt just go with Micro USB2.0. Whats even more stupid is that its still based on USB 2 and not thunderbolt or USB 3. I have to say im not a huge fan of the new Micro USB3 connector though



Main advantage is its backwards compatibility but it just doesn't strike me as robust.

MercutioUK
At least with the laptops they offer VERY good build quality and you can slap windows on there if/when the gravy train stops.

Build quality on macbooks is certainly not ‘VERY good’

They are very much form over function, just the same as everything in their inventory.

If people didn't buy in the first month they're not likely to. A lot of people (not all) buy them as an ostentatious wealth / fashion statement so being first matters. Four months later, the ship will have sailed on that.

Given that Apple give users of the last 2 generations the latest OS upgrade on launch day there is limited impetus to upgrade, new hardware is somewhat faster (but the 4S was hardly slow), a few grams lighter, slightly modified style and slightly bigger screen - whoop-de-do, that's not enough to stimulate demand from users within a 24 month contract, people will wait for the “free” upgrades.

Android manufacturers might piss off a nerd hardcore with their slow OS updates but it provides more of an impetus to upgrade and there are more new features coming in on the Android side (perhaps this will plateau now Android has caught up though), more choice of devices and an increasing app/store parity with iTunes. Oh and the best Android hardware is better than iPhone 5 on several metrics, depending on your idea of better (i.e. I like a 4.5-5“ screen).

Apple need some new ideas , they risk ”doing a Nokia" otherwise.

3dcandy
Apple will shoot themselves in the foot if they release a successor early. What with increasing size against their previous plans and bringing out an iPad mini they appear to be losing their core customers. I know of a fair amount of people who are fed up of their iPhones and the majority jumped ship to Galaxy S 3's!

I thought at the time, and still think, that the iPad Mini was a major mistake. It's just too expensive for what it is - a Nexus7 can be had for nearly £100 cheaper and it's not noticeably worse. Heck, I got a Note 10.1 for £10 more and that's a lot more capable device.
Similarly on the phones, the “gloss” of the iPhone seems to be tarnishing - I'm seeing folks who would have normally been iPhone owners who “defected” to Galaxy S3 and HTC One's. Speaking to my eldest kid and she's saying that friends who got iPhones for Christmas are less than impressed and a lot want to migrate back to “lesser” Android devices.

MercutioUK
If they perhaps stopped the whole “walled garden” approach with peripherals and apps being forced to go through expensive approval processes (less so the apps but still…) and competed on a level playing field I think they might find they have more business.

Agreed. I've wondered for a long time why Apple don't license iOS to other companies. E.g. license to HTC (for example) and let them do a low cost iOS phone - which'd be a great way surely to expand the market without much risk to Apple themselves.

MercutioUK
At least with the laptops they offer VERY good build quality and you can slap windows on there if/when the gravy train stops.

I've got a problem with that in that other manufacturers are - I'm going to argue - are shipping kit with just as good build quality AND a smaller price tag. For example, a family member got an HP Envy dv7 for Christmas - 17“ screen, very stylish and very robust feeling. Likewise there's some spectacular kit from Dell, Lenovo, etc.

Getting back to the article, haven't we all been saying that Apple shares were overpriced for months? If so, an ”adjustment“ is long overdue. As to the hints of reduced market share for Apple, I'd argue that - especially in the tablet market - this is a good thing, since it provides opportunities for others, whether that be other Android makers or Windows devices (the latter being my preference).

As I see it the problem with the iPhone is that it's pushed as a ”fashion" device. Unfortunately fashions change and there's Android (and now Windows) phones which are just as technically capable and easy to use, whilst also being as pleasing to the eye. That said, I suspect that this is just a blip in Apple's fortunes rather than being a herald of a slump like Nokia suffered.

Apple Maps.

It really gave them a kicking, many fanboys I've known who talk about “the ecosystem” and such were suddenly having to explain why they couldn't find the bar we were meeting at. Everytime. A friend who had a pre-ordered iPhone 5 gave up on apple maps after it failed to get him to the right place for the 10th time (he counted). Sometimes it was just out by a few streets in Soho, when it should be China Town. This constant annoyance lead him to an S3.

Mostly Apple users have a habbit of saying “OMFG look what has been invented and never done before in the history of ever”, whilst the rest of us have been enjoying it for a while, it was never markted in such a package before.

This time they saw something take a massive step back, whilst the other platforms were marching forward. It makes it very hard for them to think its ok.

However fanboys have delt with a lack of mouse buttons, the insainity of how cmd+tab works. Some will keep it up, a lot wont.

Those printing these figures have already altered and removed details from the articles. The numbers quoted simply didn't add up. It looks like a nice case of stock manipulation.

Apple are legally prohibited from responding to the claims as well which means its great little time to do it.
http://www.loopinsight.com/2013/01/14/apple-cant-respond-to-rumors-of-iphone-5-cuts-even-if-it-wanted-to/

Tie the dubious nature of these claims, the lack of real facts and this announcement of strong iPhone sales at Verizon
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2013/01/09/verizon-wireless-says-9-8m-smartphone-activations-in-q4/ I think when it comes to apple announcing it's sales next week or so they will put this to rest.

TheAnimus
However fanboys have delt with a lack of mouse buttons.

Seriously?? You went for the old one mouse button thing??? Would you like to roll out any more cliche's?

I think you will find Gordy that it is in other markets than the good old US that Apple is struggling, and that fact coupled with over ordering for the 5 that has meant a fair reduction. 5S rumours are also rife as people seem to think the 5 wasn't as great a product in terms of features and performance as previous iterations (Apple has pretty much hit the nail on the head previously, with perhaps only the 4S being thought of as an underperformer). Add in that everybody else has much shorter product cycles these days and Apple pretty much has to respond, and it is this fact alone that I feel will alienate them from their users as those on a 24-month contract will be increasingly alarmed to find that they have to find a fair amount of cash to keep up with the curve in the fashion stakes, something Apple has been very keen to promote themselves….or perhaps we will see a big reduction in profits that they extract from future iPhone models? (something I really really doubt)

TheAnimus
Mostly Apple users have a habbit of saying “OMFG look what has been invented and never done before in the history of ever”, whilst the rest of us have been enjoying it for a while, it was never markted in such a package before.

What? Facetime is soo innovative and new and everyone uses it as a generic trademark and, oh, wait…

Not like my mate had a phone with video calling in something like 2002-4 on 3…

I definitely agree about Apple stuff being seen by many as a fashion/wealth icon, as I've been saying even before the iPhone days.

Interesting thought about releasing iOS to other manufacturers, but I suspect it would be a very risky move for Apple, they could potentially get some extra income at the cost of the fixed hardware platform they+fanboys like to beat their chests about, and if a better/cheaper phone with iOS was made by another company, it could eat into iPhone sales badly.

I really can't see Apple ever licensing stuff again, they tried it before and got burned big time, somebody like Samsung would come along and wipe the floor with Apple because they could produce most of the device in house from screens to SoC's and ram. An iPhone beater at a cheaper price? Who'd buy Apple at all if they did that…

watercooled
Interesting thought about releasing iOS to other manufacturers, but I suspect it would be a very risky move for Apple, they could potentially get some extra income at the cost of the fixed hardware platform they+fanboys like to beat their chests about, and if a better/cheaper phone with iOS was made by another company, it could eat into iPhone sales badly.

3dcandy
I really can't see Apple ever licensing stuff again, they tried it before and got burned big time, somebody like Samsung would come along and wipe the floor with Apple because they could produce most of the device in house from screens to SoC's and ram. An iPhone beater at a cheaper price? Who'd buy Apple at all if they did that…

So you be clever with your licensing terms - effectively giving the low to mid end market (such as it would be) to the licensee's and Apple retains the high-end (and high profit margin) one that they like. What I wouldn't do though is have a free-for-all like has happened with Android, so any iOS license would also have to specify a “platform” and would only be available to a select few. What just occurred to me is that (at the risk of some lost hardware sales) this'd be a great way to get into the BRIC markets - pick a local licensee in each of these markets and get them to do a locally relevant device. Remember that Apple makes a percentage on iTunes sales so anything that moves more “product” there is also good for their bottom line.

crossy
So you be clever with your licensing terms…

My first thought was simply that Android is free, so why would HTC choose to pay Apple for iOS. But then there is obviously a market that wants anything Apple, and while I doubt whether an non-Apple iOS phone would do it for most of the Apple crowd, maybe it would create enough demand to help grab a few extra sales as against a crowded Android market.

The iTunes bit is probably a more important revenue source for Apple, especially against a free OS from google, but who knows? I've wondered for years why they don't allow OS X as separate OS - I guess they wanted to remain an exclusive, desirable product (or maybe they just don't like the idea of supporting thousands of different hardware combinations).

Also, possibly because the Mac hardware is massively overpriced, no different to any other MFR, and selling off the OS separately would risk destroying their hardware segment? At least with the iPhone, it's a reasonably competitive bit of hardware, even if the price is a bit steep vs competition.

I heard Apple were doing a big share buyback. What better way to get a better price than for a ‘leak’ to come out that things aren't going so well…

I really can't see Apple licensing, it goes against EVERYTHING they believe in, the tight control over hardware, software and even the design of a product. It really would be the end of them, they'd be finished in a couple of years - maybe even less if they went down that route

Gordy
Seriously?? You went for the old one mouse button thing??? Would you like to roll out any more cliche's?

So we agree their maps offering is a croque of poo, that their alt+tab is infuriating. Well thats two current things. The point about mouse buttons is that it is still valid in philosophy, it was SO dumb, on a scale of 0 to painful we're talking Gordon Brown. But they kept doing it. How long did they hurt their users?

It's that contempt, that level of disregard which we see today.

TheAnimus
So we agree their maps offering is a croque of poo, that their alt+tab is infuriating. Well thats two current things. The point about mouse buttons is that it is still valid in philosophy, it was SO dumb, on a scale of 0 to painful we're talking Gordon Brown. But they kept doing it. How long did they hurt their users?

It's that contempt, that level of disregard which we see today.

I find the apple maps to be better than the old google maps for my usage. I don't use it often enough to comment fully, but the vector images instead of tiles and the turn by turn stuff all were big improvements of the old google maps.

Now you can even have both for the best of each a win/win. I have Google Maps/Apple Maps and a Tom Tom to choose from. Gives me all I need and more.

And I think you'd struggle to find any mac user who used the single mouse button. You were allowed to use any mouse you wanted to after all… You could easily argue that laptop manufacturers show equal contempt to their users with the shock trackpads in pretty much every single pc laptop.

Quite what either have to do with mouses and alt tab has to do with iPhones I don't know.

When we see another record quarter of iPhone 5 sales I wonder what the next claims of the sky falling on apple's head will be? You'll have to excuse my pessimism this isn't exactly the first time these “reports” have come out. After all it was only just before xmas that there was still a shipping delay on the iPhone 5. Selling all you can make is hardly a sign of slow sales. I believe the current projections are 45million iphones sold in the quarter.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/14/iphone-5-order-cuts-dismissed-as-not-news-simply-noise

Another quarter of record sales but below what was expected? I think that's what we're saying, not that it won't be a record quarter…

Haha, knew it wouldn't last… a company that has lost its core process (marketing) was doomed to fail and to be honest when people were saying its the richest company in history I was wondering how long it would take for it to get off that, looks like IBM is still technically the historical king and they stayed there longer :P.

Gordy
I find the apple maps to be better than the old google maps for my usage.

I'll be honest, out of all the people I know with iOS, your the first to say that. In London at least the search data is useless and the roads lacking important things such as one way markings, the fact that isn't a junction etc. These have been done to death thou, no need to go back over it.

No matter how you cut it, Apple Maps was a PR faux pas. Yes, they skipped by “antennagate” which was the main reason I had to return my launchday iPhone 4 because ultimately it only mattered when you were on the edge of reception, most people unless they have a place they visit a lot (ie work or home) that puts them on said edge wouldn't notice. In fact when out and about they would be more likely to blame it on t-mobile.

Apple Maps was in your face badness. The damage was done. When in the more mountain parts of Thailand, a friend explained any girl with an iPhone 4S has a farang boyfriend or is ‘for rent’. A few months later and that role is taken by the S3. Watching how brand perception in emerging markets changes is I think a very useful measure. Samsung have been selling bucket loads of high end devices, which no one would have even thought remotely possible 2 years ago. Yes the market for high end phones is expanding, but their growth has to come from somewhere.

Gordy
And I think you'd struggle to find any mac user who used the single mouse button. You were allowed to use any mouse you wanted to after all… You could easily argue that laptop manufacturers show equal contempt to their users with the shock trackpads in pretty much every single pc laptop.

Uh hu. Find me a desktop that costs £1k but has such poor mouse, lets look at the percentage of such sales that have a low end mouse. It was pure stuberness, can't you understand? They had an idea that it was simpler to have just one button and refused to see they where wrong. This still impacts people, last night trying to explain to my aunt, over the phone, how to share a contact on skype. I forgot she was on mac simply saying ‘right click’ her laptop of course does not make that easy for an elderly lady who is holding a phone (her BB isn't good enough for audio skype even….) and so only has one hand available.

This is an example of when someone refuses to acknowledge a bad decision that hurts users.

Apple Maps was another example, why did they kill completely the old google app? Why not just release the Apple Maps as a new, have both available, from day 1.

No, they didn't want that, they wanted everyone to be using their platform due to revenues. They didn't even give google a long heads up. And have you seen how badly it runs on a 4?

Gordy
When we see another record quarter of iPhone 5 sales I wonder what the next claims of the sky falling on apple's head will be? You'll have to excuse my pessimism this isn't exactly the first time these “reports” have come out. After all it was only just before xmas that there was still a shipping delay on the iPhone 5. Selling all you can make is hardly a sign of slow sales. I believe the current projections are 45million iphones sold in the quarter.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/14/iphone-5-order-cuts-dismissed-as-not-news-simply-noise

Quite probably, but that is due to the holiday seasons and the growing market. The fact that people in the third world, who earn maybe £4k per year, own a £400 phone is frankly amazing and shocking to me. Yet the importance of the phone as an entertainment device, a way of passing time in a rather value effective manner, makes it a more importance purchase than say a scooter.

The fear is that Apple have dropped the ball, I know only one person who isn't planning to jump ship from Apple now. You only have to look in this forums classified section and someone is moving from iPads to nexus.

I'd agree with the jumping ship, people are just seeing the S3 for example as a better or equal phone available for less per month and Android is generally cheaper to get apps too. With more choice of an Android device as well most of the old Apple fans I know have already jumped. Somebody commented above that people were disgruntled to get iPhones for Christmas, I've not heard that but some youngsters I know were disgusted to get iPods as they'd rather have had a phone for the money…

Yes, I don't think it will be an easy ride for Andriod however. There was an article in the metro today about children making large bills on parents fondlejabs (tablets and phones).

This is due to freemium games which allow a user to make in game purchases without parental approval, but also some of the outragous premium rate dailing games which do exist on Andriod.

However, a lot of the Apple fanboys are just plain delusional. Take John Gruber's digging up of this article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002601-buy-apple-on-january-18

Apparently its so easy to manipulate a company which has nion 1BN shares in issue, that you can take the price not just below the 550 strike, where a lot of the (now out of the money) options are, but another 70points below!

Uh hu.

(I would suggest its probably to see a move around expiry, but on a stock as liquid as Apple, it won't be much compared to the last week)

Aaaand its not doing much better.

In some after hours trading it sinks as low as $465.

The interesting thing here is APPL has almost always traded itself as a growth stock, its sitting on a huge pile of cash and people are really worried they have no clue about the direction to go in.

Its the mono button mentality again. Apple could create a much better impression by either having some new ideas, or changing its stock to be a good yielding div payer, rather than growth.

And record number of iphones sold…. Colour me not surprised 47.5m. Along with record earnings again. 18% up on apple's predictions.

Share price is going down again, which shows the sense of most wall street investors.

Ahh Gordy, but they predicted 50 million iphones sold, and whilst earnings were up profit was down. We can all manipulate the figures…

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/jan/24/apple-results-iphone-sales

Take a look through that…perhaps you may understand why investors are cautious

Gordy
Share price is going down again, which shows the sense of most wall street investors.

Obviously you understand the market really well. According to BBG a sizeable number of Apple stocks are held by private investors, a lot are ADRs which are apparently privately held by chinese investors according to some estimates. So blaming it on wall street is, erm disengenious, reactionary or just plain ignorant.

It's a stock that pays dividends:
http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm

That's all that matters, sitting on cash isn't good. If people wanted to invest in a very large hedge fund, they would.

So a stock which has been paying 0.5% as a div yeild your saying is now undervalued? Are you insisting its a growth stock?

Obviously your sharp financial insights are definately not looking at all fanboy esc, I mean a stock thats got such bad moving average right now, wouldn't possibly suggest that people expected more from it would it? If it is so undervalued, why aren't you mortgaging your house to buy it all up!

That is the issue, why did nokia trade bellow 2 euros this summer? Because 6 years ago they had almost all the smartphone sales, they even did a share buyback. Now look at them circling the drain.

Apple's cash cow, the fondlejab is under tremendus pressure from google in the low end, windows 8 x86 in the enterprise, and both in the middle.

Phones, right now we're seeing andriod massively outsell, look at samsungs stock price, why isn't it higher? Because no one is expecting samsung to grow explosively in to anything.

That was the issue with Apple, iPhone 5 is boring. I know a few fanboys who jumped to the S3, it's cheaper afterall, and better in almost every metric. Quite a few have gone to the 920 which can't even run skype in the background yet.

So apple will sell more, the market is growing. The problem is so are the other players, faster. We've also got Firefox, Ubuntu entering the game. Meanwhile analysists and some manafacturers where surprised by the demand for ‘touchtops’ brought on by windows 8, meaning their predictions of sales slides haven't been as harsh as thought. This then leads to the questions of where are Apple going?

They have been a royal failure in Maps, their cloud offering is not very good and runs on Amazon and Microsoft stack.

Meanwhile the Google Ecosystem has been growing day by day. Some are suggesting that the rise of Google's Productivity Suite could see Chrome OS start to become more mainstream for the durrr PC to complex for me crowd, the people who've been buying an iPad and a Laptop because they still have to do some office work.

Apple will see none of this growth.

Then when looking at the EMs and the Apple halo is slipping, badly, some middle class, by Vietnamese standards friends of mine sent me a picture from their new phone (Tet is a traditional time to buy things before), its a $150 chinese andriod, the quality isn't bad at all.

So where will the growth that justifies the Apple share price being so much higher than their div come from?

Analysists and such are already lining up to suggest Apple need to offer big divs to sustain their share price. Look at it vs 1 year ago, its not struggling, its just massively overhyped last year. Now the disapoinment has dragged it down a bit, more to reality, but as currently stands by their current offerings, probably not down enough.

3dcandy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/jan/24/apple-results-iphone-sales

Take a look through that…perhaps you may understand why investors are cautious

Oh god. The comments.

In the same way someone made the ****-O-TRON for BBC HYS comments, most of those are utter drivel.

So a comapny which is incredibly cash rich, having its best profits ever, share price took a beating. That doesn't mean investment bankers think that it will go bust, it doesn't mean that they are in any danger. It just means the market isn't expecting growth.

The way most of the fanboys/anti-capitalist-yet-pro-apple-capitalisation types write there makes me wish gun ownership where legal with hunting permits.

Oh I know..but it's still apparent that investors are jumpy. I think this is the first time in ages that Apple has missed it's shipping forecast (Dogger - cloudy?) for the iPhone in years…

TheAnimus
Meanwhile the Google Ecosystem has been growing day by day. Some are suggesting that the rise of Google's Productivity Suite could see Chrome OS start to become more mainstream for the durrr PC to complex for me crowd, the people who've been buying an iPad and a Laptop because they still have to do some office work. Apple will see none of this growth.

Good post! :rockon:
At the risk of contradicting you, Chromebook's might be a go-er for personal use, but businesses seem to be heading rapidly towards Windows8. After all, if/when you can get a tablet that can slot into a dock, which is then connected to proper monitor, keyboard, etc and runs the same OS that the bosses powerhouse desktop does then that's a compelling device. You don't have to learn a new UI, you get a wide app choice and support is easier.

As you point out Apple's now caught between giant that is Windows, and the soldier ant colony of Android. So unless they come out with something “gotta have” soon then they're either going to get squashed or nibbled to death.

iPhone5 was “okay”, and the only “innovation” in tablets was to go for a form factor that everyone else is doing. Meanwhile, the competition are delivering more and more well designed and feature-filled smartphones and tablets. So I can well understand why a savvy investor might assume that Apple's kind of lost it's way.

Perhaps it's time for a new way of thinking at Cupertino?