Tablets don't kill PCs, WAPPERS DO!
(sorry I had to)
Well that was pretty obvious. But I wouldn't even blame macroeconomic factors on the decline of desktop sales, but rather the fact that most people don't need computers more powerful than we already have to do everyday tasks, so there's no reason to upgrade. Even if you want to be able to play the latest games, you really only need to upgrade a few parts every 3 or 4 years or so.
Shoddy piece of analysis. What does “it will force them to evolve” even mean? That they will evolve into tablets? That's possible and already happening. But worse, the analysis assumes that tablet OS's won't evolve. There are already Android apps which can open as windows over other apps, and there are apps that can do pretty much anything a normal user would want, from editing photos to word processing to app development. They are raw, but that doesn't mean they won't evolve. Tablets (and phones) can also hook up to larger displays through HDMI or wirelessly, and to input devices.
In the short term I don't think that PC's will die, but in the long term I think that the paradigm of a highly mobile device plus a dock will win. That won't mean the death of the PC, because the definition of “PC” will change, like we think of laptops right now as PC's, even though that's not the image we had a few years ago. Ten years down the line we might have a phone which hooks wirelessly to our monitor and keyboard, and it might even run full Windows, and we'll think of it as a PC.
Edit: Who knows, maybe 10 years from now wearable computers will really work and be common.
Worse - MS are moving PCs into the dumbed down area of tablets where users don't have much real control over the device they own, they just pay the money and install ‘Apps’ from a walled garden. PC games are becoming like that with Steam / Uplay etc, and the MS store for Windows ‘Apps’ is leading us that way too. The idea of a ‘program’ is alien speak.
On the whole it was inevitable. 99 percent of end users blindly click on adverts saying ‘your computer registry has an error - click here to install Regclean Turbo’ to fix it - baddam - instant spyware on PC. Leaving the walled garden is too much for most.
ET3D
Shoddy piece of analysis. …
Totally agree (and especially with the rest of that quote that I cut out). Looking around my relatives with PC's and you're talking Skype, browsing, email, strategy games and the odd letter and bank planning sheet. Now how much of that actually needs a decent PC? Answer is “none”.
What's needed is dockable PC's whose docks allow the connection of mouse and keyboard plus higher resolution (NOT larger - my tablets can already connect to any HDMI-equipped TV). I can easily forsee that homes with decent tablets and games consoles wouldn't need a PC. Especially as the non-Apple tablets can “do” USB - in which case the MS Surface (and clones) deserves to do very well indeed.
On the other hand there will always be folks whose business or home needs are such that they definitely need that extra power. Anyone who wants to rip MP3*/MP4's, developers, video production, sound engineers, etc, and of course the denizens of Hexus.
So no, PC's are by no means “dead” (I'm holding onto mine!!!) but you'll definitely see the crappy low end gear disappear. E.g. I was looking at some Acer with a low-spec Pentium B series processor, same price as a Galaxy Note tablet, and I'd have no problems choosing the tablet. Like I said though, folks who need or want that high-end buzz are still going to be buying PC's into the future.
(* Edit: someone just pointed out that the Brennan gear manages to rip CD's, so what's to stop someone doing a NAS style device that has the same capability)
This Frank Gillett must be some kind of brave genius of an analyst.
Tablets will not kill PCs?!
Really? After tv killed radio
And then computers killed tv
And then mp3 players killed CDs…
which had already killed vinyl
And then smartphones had killed mp3 players….
having killed dumb phones obviously…
(which had killed landline phones)
Oh wait…
And this guy is audacious enough to believe that tablets *won't* kill pcs in any timeframe before his research is l o n g forgotten?
Amazing…
I completely agree with this article. The reason, partly because I am biased for this “opinion”, is because a desktop PC is always the forefront of any computing technology, it is always the bleeding edge. Until you find a way to decrease the size of a technology, the desktop is the only place to look, then come laptops. Think about it. When I had a DUAL PENTIUM 3 home server in the late 90's and early 2000's that my cousin built and then gave to me, I was running 1GHz and 256 MB or RAM! Even in 2003, after the Pentium 4 and the 2GHz milestone, laptops did the same amount of work the Pentium 3 (single chip) could do. Sure, there are the regular desktop components and then the mobile versions, but a high end laptop with an i7 and a 660m video card could never do what an i5 and 650 video card could. In the years to come, the laptops will be able to do that no problem and then tablets may follow. I'm a PC gamer, dropped about 2 grand on my system (still using a intel core i5 760, changing over to i5 3570k or i6 3770k soon!). Point me in the direction of a laptop or Mac or phone that can do the same for less. Nothing? Come back in 5-10 years.
By the way, on another note, no matter how small or powerful our devices get, the newest applications will always need the fastest to run the best, and that just doesn't start with tablets and phones.
crossy
(* Edit: someone just pointed out that the Brennan gear manages to rip CD's, so what's to stop someone doing a NAS style device that has the same capability)
I forgot about that part. NAS is part of my vision of the future. NAS and “network attached CPU”. People would still want to store large amounts of data or perform calculations which need more CPU power. It's just not strictly necessary to have that data and power in every device. Put one such device at home or for a group of people at work, and everyone could access it from anywhere.
As for desktop PC's, I imagine they'll remain, but they'll probably cost more. They'll be like DSLR's or high end audio systems, not something most people buy, but they'll have a small but dedicated following of more discerning computer buyers. Still, I can't see desktops as they are now (bulky tower cases) continuing to be sold to the general consumer market a 5-10 years from now.
ET3D
… I forgot about that part. NAS is part of my vision of the future. NAS and “network attached CPU”. People would still want to store large amounts of data or perform calculations which need more CPU power. It's just not strictly necessary to have that data and power in every device. Put one such device at home or for a group of people at work, and everyone could access it from anywhere. …
You're predicting the return of the
mainframe? :O_o1:
Now
that's brave analysis ;)
Noli
This Frank Gillett must be some kind of brave genius of an analyst.
Tablets will not kill PCs?!
Really? After tv killed radio
And then computers killed tv
And then mp3 players killed CDs…
which had already killed vinyl
And then smartphones had killed mp3 players….
having killed dumb phones obviously…
(which had killed landline phones)
Oh wait…
And this guy is audacious enough to believe that tablets *won't* kill pcs in any timeframe before his research is l o n g forgotten?
Amazing…
By your logic, PCs should have died years ago when laptops began to be affordable. Tablets may kill laptops as they serve the purpose of a portable computer far better, but I just don't see it replacing the PC, especially for tasks that need a lot of grunt.
As long as the PC gaming master race walks the earth, PCs will never die :P
scaryjim
You're predicting the return of the mainframe? :O_o1:
Now that's brave analysis ;)
To be fair we are already at that point for a lot of people with servers doing a large part of the workload for any users. EG Gmail for email, dropbox for file storage etc. The cloud is somewhat similar to a mainframe of old.
I don't think the traditional computer will ever completely go away, but the tablet covers 100% of use cases for a lot of people. I have several clients who's only computer is an iPad.
Noli
And then mp3 players killed CDs…
I was wondering about that one. And by the sound of it, CD is still kicking:
http://hexus.net/business/news/internet/49813-uk-shoppers-spent-1bn-digital-downloads-2012And frankly, I do not believe that computers have killed the TV either.
It's kinda funny though. Not even a year ago, most posters here were sceptical about tablets. I still am. I will always have a PC (be it in desktop form, or laptop form - I consider both to be “PCs”) for serious work / gaming. And while I am sure that tablets can be made to support mouse/keyboard/external monitor and even Windows to effectively act as a modular PC component, do I really want to hook / unhook every single time? Probably not. If I end up with a tablet (and I still have no plan for that), it'll just be used on the sofa for casual browsing (I doubt that I would even bother making this post on a tablet).
Still, PCs have hit maturity, whereas tablets, at least in it's present format, is younger than even smartphones.. which still has far more room to grow than PCs. So I wouldn't be surprised to see PC sales decline on a year-on-year basis, while smartphones and tablets still continue to increase by double or even triple digits percentage. That to me does not mean that tablets are eating into PC shares, as I would expect PC sales to decline even without the tablets.
hesham1516
By your logic, PCs should have died years ago when laptops began to be affordable. Tablets may kill laptops as they serve the purpose of a portable computer far better, but I just don't see it replacing the PC, especially for tasks that need a lot of grunt.
As long as the PC gaming master race walks the earth, PCs will never die :P
I was being sarcastic. tv didn't kill radio cos radios are still around. As are vinyl, CDs, dumbphones and landlines. In abundance.
I was emphasizing how pathetically unimaginative and safe his prediction was (or at least trying to).
The old techs are still available, but they are marginalised. Vinyl is currently somewhat of a fad, but still a small market. CD's are going out, there's been talk about some music publishers stopping their support. VCR's are still available, and you can also still buy cassette tapes and diskettes, but…
A lot of people cling to old technologies, especially if they feel they are in some ways superior (such as with vinyl), but the majority moves on.
As for PC's, my current feeling is that they'll become gaming and processing servers, not hooked directly to anything but power, but serving many clients at home wirelessly.
ET3D
CD's are going out, there's been talk about some music publishers stopping their support.
Replaced by compressed crap for the same price so they extend their profit margins even further. Only few of the services offer FLAC or CD downloads and even then they cost more than a flipping CD.
All,they are doing is rebranding stuff and making it more expensive.
The worst thing is that if you were to download the music for free via,ahem, dodgy means it is easier to get FLAC versions of albums.
I sometimes wonder if my desire to stick with the type of PC I grew up with is just the start of me becoming old and stubborn. My kids will be laughing at me for wanting to use a mouse I reckon, and I won't be able to use their fancy thought controlled devices.
CAT-THE-FIFTH
Replaced by compressed crap for the same price so they extend their profit margins even further.
The worst thing for me is that it might mean I'm not able to get the music I want. I can't buy music at Amazon or many other services. iTunes is now available to me, but with a limited selection. On the other hand I can order any CD I want from Amazon or other international stores. These digital borders are one of my main beefs with the digital content industry (the same applies to videos and e-books).
tre_peter
I sometimes wonder if my desire to stick with the type of PC I grew up with is just the start of me becoming old and stubborn.
That's an interesting point. I often attribute my willingness to embrace some new technologies and form factors to my bad memory, which doesn't make me be as nostalgic as I might have been, but reading this something else crossed my mind. It's possible that having seen enough transitions (from home computers to PC's, for example), and encountering computers only as a teenager means that I haven't been “imprinted” with any particular technology.
Absolutely disagree with this piece of analysis.
It's the same as saying the petrol engine will become obsolete because of electric engines, or books will die off because of e-readers.
Pure poppycock! Different users want different things, I own a tablet, netbook, smartphone and a high performance pc. All have a purpose which they are suited to but my PC will always win when it comes to doing “real” tasks such as serious gaming or work.
A tablet is my hooker, I use it for pleasure when i'm away from home or nothing better is around.
I can't currently see a situation where PC's become obsolete, sure tablets are great useful but try sitting and programming on one for long periods of time without a keyboard etc.
I'd argue that the minute you add a hardware keyboard to a tablet and sit at a desk with it it becomes a PC.
There is definitely need and room for both to Co exist quite happily for a long time.
Tablets will reaplce PC's for some people, just like a lot of people dumped full sized laptops and desktops for netbooks. And for that matter, people have dumped desktops for laptops. None of these for factors have gone away.
Tablet sales are rocketing, I would guess that the segment that is suffering the most is the netbook. Tablets are the new bottom end basic internet device (even when you have a tablet that costs several times what a Netbook does, still just an internet device when you come to it).
Jasonwebb
I personally think that laptops and tabs are replacing the pcs because they are more powerful and easy to handle than bulky pcs.
How on earth is a laptop, never mind a tablet, more powerful than a desktop?
When it comes to some people replacing their ageing old desktops, they are being replaced by laptops, netbooks and tablets, but that's because they are better suited to that persons usage, rather than being more powerful.